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Sports Talk with The Good Doc

Wednesday, June 3...9 AM PST

It Will Take a Hail Mary to Keep the Rams in St. Louis

If not a Hail Mary, perhaps a "He shoots...he scores!!" - given the recent interest shown in the Rams by Blues' owner Dave Checketts.

Checketts certainly has a quality track record and seems to be a competent and seasoned pro sports owner.

That said, much like the Blues of 08-09, he may end up shorthanded in his efforts to keep the Rams in The Lou.

Of course, some would say that the Rams' play of late stinks like something you might find in 'the lou'...but that's another topic for another blog.

There are two major issues associated with keeping the Rams in St Louis. 1) Can you find a local ownership group and/or someone who is committed to keeping the team in St Louis? 2) What are you going to do about the lease requirement for The Ed...notably, keeping the Dome among the top 25% of facilities in the league?

FINDING LOCAL OWNERSHIP

Prior to learning of Checketts interests, I was highly skeptical that a local buyer would swoop in...so was Chip Rosenbloom, which is why he didn't place any stipulations on Goldman-Sachs when fishing out potential buyers for the team.

Checketts is an influential, connected guy who seemingly has the wherewithal to make things happen. And if he only is on the hook for 60% of the franchise (since Stan Kronke looks as though he'll keep his 40% minority share) then this makes the task slightly less cumbersome.

And the current economic downturn won't last forever, so the factors that are scaring people away from making investments in sports today shouldn't impact Checketts' ability to round up financial resources a few years out.

Lastly, the NFL is the most financially stable of the leagues for reasons associated with their guaranteed media revenues...so this makes ownership in the NFL a little less treacherous than, say, NHL ownership.

THE ED

I think the major sticking point that will make the Rams 'un-stick' to STL is The Ed.

Much like the Georgia Dome built a few years before it, this dome cannot hold a candle to most NFL stadiums.

Arguably one of the worst 6 stadiums in football today, not even Joan Rivers like plastic surgery on this facility can save it.

And unless the possible Checketts group or whomever else wants to pony up private money for a new stadium like Robert Kraft did when they built Gillette Stadium for the Patriots, I see this as the major reason why it is highly unlikely that the days of St Louis being a '3 sport town' are numbered.

I believe that Dave Checketts is a quality leader, and what he and his staff have done with the St Louis Blues in 3 seasons from an on-ice and off-ice standpoint are a testament to his leadership skills.

But if Dave Checketts is the King of St. Louis sports owners, I fear that all the Kings' financial horses and all the Kings' sportsmen won't be enough to keep pro football in St Louis for the long term.

SILVER LINING...MAYBE

Here's the good news. The Dome is a useful facility for many different types of sporting events.

And given the relatively little use of the facility from the pro football season (10 dates a year), there are other events that could generate more visitor dollars to the region.

Youth sports tournaments may not be sexy, but they bring out of town visitors which provides new business for local restaurants, hotels, and retailers. The Dome and America's Center combined would be marvelous hosts for events like youth gymnastics, wrestling, volleyball, basketball, dance and cheer, etc...

And we still have NCAA basketball events, concerts, and similarly large-scale events to house at the dome.

The down side of all of this is that even if it yields more economic return than pro football, St Louis will receive a black eye for losing pro football for the second and last time. To the extent that this potential loss connotes something amiss with our city to outsiders, that would be an unfortunate scar the city and region would have to live with.

Thursday, March 26th...9 AM

Jim Calhoun and Alex Rodriguez…Prisoners to the Dilemma of Cheating in Sports

Upon learning of the alleged NCAA infractions committed by the University of Connecticut’s men’s basketball program, I couldn’t help but think of Alex Rodriguez.

Cheating in college recruiting is no different from using steroids in baseball from the perspective that both scenarios follow the Prisoner’s Dilemma to a tee.

Based on the evidence currently at hand against the University of Connecticut’s basketball program, and IF it eventually is validated, then Jim Calhoun and Alex Rodriguez are equally guilty of getting caught in a ‘Prisoner’s Dilemma game’ as ‘reluctant yet willing’ violators of the system of rules they were suppose to follow.

Economics 101: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

As it is applied in the field of economics and business, the Prisoner’s Dilemma is a theory of how individuals and/or firms strategically interact with each other when given the chance to either cooperate or cheat with one another or with some established set of explicit or implicit rules.

When confronted with a Prisoner’s Dilemma, economic agents either choose to cooperate with each other or cheat the system. And when they choose to cheat, the motivation for doing so can be summarized as follows:

-They want to aggressively gain an advantage against their competition;

oAn instigator (active or aggressive violator); OR

-They believe that others are already breaking the rules. Hence, to avoid being ‘left behind’ in a perceived competitive disadvantage, the economic agent in question decides to ‘join the herd’ and breaks the rules like everyone else

oA reluctant yet willing violator.

Real World Examples of Prisoner’s Dilemma

Though explicit collusion in the U.S. is illegal, it is well documented that it is not uncommon for firms to tacitly coordinate decisions in competitive industries with the hope of boosting joint profits while minimizing such things as price or advertising wars that can prove costly and wasteful.

Before applying this concept to sports, consider these real world examples from the airline and soda industries.

If all airlines with direct flights from Chicago to LA charged the same airfare and implicitly agreed not to engage in a fare war, then they will not cut into each other’s profit margins and thus jointly maximize their profits.

But this strategy only works if the airlines trust one another. And with tremendous incentives for individual airlines to ‘cheat’ on the agreement, one or more firms will likely instigate a fare reduction. Eventually, others follow suit or else they’ll be at a competitive pricing disadvantage.

Similarly, suppose that all major soda companies agree to minimize their national advertising expenditures given the considerable expense of such campaigns.

But for this to happen, trust among competitors would once again have to rule the day.

And the minute Pepsi decides to launch a new ad campaign in the hopes of gaining an edge, an advertising war will ensue and other soda makers will launch their own campaigns in retaliation.

At the end of the day, millions of dollars in ad expenditures have been exhausted and yet market shares remain mostly unchanged.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma in Recruiting and Steroids

Why do coaches or athletes try to ‘cheat the system’?

To either maximize their advantage or to minimize a perceived disadvantage.

The NCAA has hundreds of pages that detail hundreds of ways that a school may be in violation of various bylaws and compliance guidelines.

And despite the fact that some schools have received severe punishment by way of scholarship reductions, bans from post-season play, and forfeiting of wins and championships, we still see on an annual basis major recruiting violations by people that thought they were above it all.

Now add the University of Connecticut’s men’s basketball program to that list.

Suddenly, their present pursuit for the 2008-09 Men’s Basketball Championship is facing a road block much more formidable than the absence of Jerome Dyson.

Suddenly, their pursuit of a 3rd championship in the last 10 years feels a bit dirty.

Suddenly, just as many sighed with disappointment – but not disbelief – when Alex Rodriguez joined the long list of doping baseball players caught with their hands in the steroids jar, so too will many sports fans now look upon Bill Calhoun’s legendary Hall of Fame career with newly found skepticism and jadedness.

Though certainly not condoning or explaining the actions of Rodriguez and Calhoun, the Prisoner’s Dilemma offers great insight as to why people make bad (and at times illegal) decisions when thrust into pressure cooker situations with high risks and rewards.

If I was a rookie ballplayer during the Steroids Era of Major League Baseball, and I knew that several guys on my team and/or my peer group (i.e. same rookie class or similar age) were sticking their butts with needles, can I honestly say I wouldn’t be tempted?

Especially with the perception that ‘the juice’ offers that extra edge that may keep me in ‘the bigs’, and thus, keep me in the limelight with the money, fame, and all that comes with?

Comparatively, if I was coaching at the Division I level and I knew (because I’ve got Lane Kiffin-like telepathy) that my colleagues across the conference/region/nation were bending the rules while pursuing the same kids I wanted, can I honestly say I would absolutely turn the other cheek and try to be the better man and not violate NCAA recruiting guidelines?

Especially when I know that a couple of solid recruiting classes could lead to greater success and thus greater pay, notoriety, and the opportunity to get browbeaten at a post-game press conference about giving part of my salary back to a deficit-laden state?

I had some sympathy for Jim Calhoun during his recent public debate with a so-called journalist about his salary, though the coach still came off as a bit of a tyrant and bully in a less than ideal public relations moment for the university.

But if the story reported by Yahoo Sports is accurate, then Calhoun is no less a cheater than Alex Rodriguez.

This doesn’t mean that Calhoun can’t coach or that Alex Rodriguez isn’t a great baseball player without the juice.

And I’m not playing judge and jury by decrying these men as immoral and despicable human beings. Lord knows – heck, we all know – that they aren’t the only guilty parties out there.

But when you put people in highly competitive environments where there is a culture of cheating – be it recruiting or steroids – you are bound to have rules broken and reputations tarnished without effective oversight.

Yesterday was just another sad day for sports purist.

And unlike A-Rod’s ‘young and stupid’ defense, I don’t think Coach Calhoun can rock that one out. Bathing in the Fountain of Youth wouldn’t clean the stench off this one.

Monday, March 2nd...9 AM

The Price of Immaturity for Andre Smith...$6-18 million

Whether the NFL combine places too much emphasis on one's vertical jump or 40-yard dash time is always a hot button topic.

But there is no question that, historically, some rookies have either hurt or helped their financial cause in the NFL draft based on some combination of their performance at the combine or at their own personal 'pro day'.

Andre Smith of Alabama garnered some headlines recently, showing up to Indianapolis overweight and then leaving unannounced without performing during the combine.

Coupled with the fact that he was suspended by Alabama prior to their bowl game for off-field misconduct, and now there is considerable doubt about his character...which will likely cost him several draft positions.

So this predicated my investigation of how much money players can lose or gain in guaranteed money based on their draft position in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

Digging up data from Rotoworld on the guaranteed money earned by 1st round draft picks in 2008, and using regression analysis to assess the correlation between draft position and guaranteed money, I found the following:

- 78% of the variation in guaranteed money received across rookies could be explained solely by their draft position;

- for every position a player dropped in the draft, it cost them an average of $772,410;

Therefore, based on these results, the following projections can be made regarding the rookies taken in the 1st round of the upcoming 2009 draft:

- Holding constant a player’s field position, 1st round selections will lose between $621,000 and $923,000 in guaranteed money for every one spot they slip in the draft;

- Hence, falling 5 spots would cost between $3.1-4.6 million...falling 10 spots would cost $6.2-9.2 million...falling 20 spots would cost $12.4-18.4 million.

Therefore, based on the speculation I'm hearing to date about how Andre Smith's antics will cost him between 10 and 20 spots in the NFL Draft, Mr. Smith better go to Washington for some personal bailout money. He could lose between $6-18 million in guaranteed money if these draft speculations turn out to be true.

So Andre the Giant (Mess) had better mend fences, lose pounds, and grow up fast. He better start a recuperative PR campaign, save children from burning buildings, and leap through fire during his NFL 'pro day'.

Otherwise, Smith's stock will fall as fast as his draft position.

Monday, February 23rd...9 AM

Calhoun's No Goon for Staunchly Defending his Salary

So the most exciting part of the college basketball weekend was Jim Calhoun defending his high salary when questioned during a post-game interview on Saturday night.

The question was raised in part because the state of Connecticut is currently suffering from a huge budgetary deficit, and the interviewer clearly believed that Mr. Calhoun's salary is a tad disproportionate...given that he is merely the coach of the school's basketball team.

First, Calhoun is not the reason why the state of Connecticut is suffering from a budget gap...so why should he be expected to volunteer to solve the problem.

For if that was a prudent way to solve problems, let's just ask every well-paid college coach to contribute 5% of their salary as part of President Obama's stimulus package.

Second, as frivilous as sports may seem to some, coaches of revenue-generating college sports are going to earn more money than other high-profile university officials for several reasons.

These coaches and their programs are generating millions of dollars of revenue for the university, and that revenue can be directly tied to that team and that coach.

And as free agents, these coaches command more buzz than their university presidents...hence, coach's salaries get more of a boost from the open market.

After all, if you asked the average college basketball fan to name 10 top coaches, few would fail. But if you asked them to name 10 top university presidents, you better be in front of a computer or have an iPhone because it will take a little research to get that answer.

Long story short...Jim Calhoun, who apparently makes somewhere north of $1.6 million, is certainly justified to defend his salary because no one pointed a gun at the university when time came to write that contract.

To the winner go the spoils, and no question that Coach Calhoun is one of the biggest winners in college basketball.

Tuesday, February 10th...8 AM

A-Rod's Day of Reckoning Spawns Opportunity for Rebranding

Look on the bright side, Michael Phelps.

You could be Alex Rodriguez.

Just imagine as A-Rod watches Sportscenter this morning and exclaims, "I said what?"

A-Rod certainly has had his detractors, and no doubt they rejoice with glee this morning.

But I think A-Rod, in coming out yesterday with his admission of steroid use, has done the best with a bad situation and bad choices from his past.

In coming out the way he did, he now looks like Andy Petite and not like Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds...that's a good thing.

And unlike many players suspected of steroid use that have lost significant public luster (e.g. Clemens, Bonds, Palmeiro, McGuire, Sosa), his revelation comes while he still has a significant amount of time to play and influence people's thinking in a positive way...and that's a good thing.

He not only can go out and prove to everyone that he is an all-timer who doesn't require the use of foreign substances to enhance his clout, but he can show some public relations acumen and continue to rebrand himself in the eyes of the public.

If he can become more Jeter-like, be the ultimate team player and become a pillar of the locker room, and dare I say, bring a championship to New York, many fans will largely forgive his transgressions while inTexas.

I believe A-Rod is an intelligent guy. Did he cheat on his wife? Probably, but plenty of smart people cheat on their spouses. Did he cheat the game of baseball for a few years? Yes he did, as have many others...most of whom have not 'fessed up'.

But he's savvy enough to know that he controls how history will remember him. And yesterday's 'mea culpa' was the first in a series of steps that he'll need to make over the next several years to rehabilitate his image.

And with a little luck, a lot of genuine efforts and intentions, and continued excellence on the field, he might still be a Bronx-ian hero, a role model, and ultimately a Hall of Famer.

Saturday, 2/7/09...10 AM

Too Com-PLAX...Goodell and Giants

Must Punish Burress

Look on the bright side, Michael Phelps.

You could be Plaxico Burress.

As fans, we will never completely rid ourselves of the

'me first' athlete.

That responsibility is up to teams and leagues.

Plaxico Burress embarassed the Giants and the NFL with his shooting episode.

He certainly is guilty of, at the very least, partially sabatoging the Giants and their chances of defending their World Championship.

He certainly contributed to the shady, unappreciative stereotype that some assign to NFL players.

Nothing would please me more to see the Giants succeed in their attempts to void his contract...and by all means they seem contractually justified to do so given that his behavior constitutes disrepute.

And Roger Goodell will no doubt make Mr. Burress sweat a bit before letting him back into his league.

2/3/09

Phelps and Manny...Dumb and Dumber

Professors Phelps and Ramirez are about to begin their new

course offering for the Spring semester.

Pissing Money Away 101

I can't help but be a bit critical of Michael Phelps in particular.

After all, we all knew Manny's true colors...and those colors ain't Red Sox Red or Dodger Blue...their $$$ Green.

But all I can think about today is DeNiro's Jack Burns character from Meet the Parents.

Burns: "Do you think if I set you up Michael you could spike this one?"

Phelps: "Yeah, Jack, but I'd have to be pretty high up to get it."

Burns: "I bet you would, Panama Red."

But seriously...c'mon, Mike.

The only people that are singing "I wanna be like Mike" today are all the fans of Seth Rogen's stonerfest Pineapple Express.

Following the DUI from his post-Olympic euphoria from 2004 and rumors about other morally compromising activities which have surfaced on the likes of TMZ, the human fish is showing his Cheech Marin side...companies and parents alike will take notice.

This photo and these behaviors will hurt his endorsement potential in the near future, and it will hurt his ability for speaking engagements...which might be a good thing based on what I've seen from him thus far.

And don't be surprised if some of his current contracts are voided. A niche company likeSpeedo may stay with him, but don't be surprised if other companies with a broader consumer base cut him loose in this tight economy.

And as for Manny, as my man JT sings, what goes around comes around, bra...are ya feelin' me?

2/2/09

The Fitz Blitz: Good, But...

Holy cow, Phil Rizutto.

I mean, what can you say after that game last night.

The resiliency of the Cardinals and the Steelers.

Of Kurt Warner to bounce back from a seemingly

back-breaking turnover to end the first half and lead his team to what would have been the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history.

Of Ben R. to consistently dance around the pocket the way JT did during the ESPYs and keep drives alive - especially the winning drive - was nothing short of spectacular.

And Larry Fitzgerald turned it on in the 4th quarter. I think the USOC might want to recruit Mr. Fitzgerald for the 400 relay as he dashed towards glory to seemingly win Super Bowl XLIII.

But Big Ben's comeback may have cost Mr. Fitz mega-cash.

Make no mistake...Larry Fitzgerald probably gained the most incrementally during these playoffs. Football junkies knew how good he was, but now his brand has been exposed to a broader audience. Marketers will seek him out.

Great player. Good guy. Unique storyline as his father is a sportswriter. Handsome, well-spoken, and such.

But unlike his fictional alumnus Rod Tidwell who ultimately received the 'quan', L Fitz will only see a portion of that 'quan'.

I mean, I'm not hosting a wake for the man...he gonna get his.

But had the Cardinals held on for an extra 2 minutes, Fitzgerald would have at least had a share of the MVP (I argue that we would have see co-MVPs with Warner and Fitz), and the sponsors would have lined the man's driveway upon his return from Disneyworld.

The thrill of victory, and the agony of losing endorsement coin...hopefully Big Ben cuts L Fitz a check to compensate the man for stealing his heart and his loot all in one 2-minute drill.

1/30/09

So two days before the Super Bowl, and I'm thinking

the Cardinals are going to pull off the upset...at the

very least they will cover the spread.

Uncle Mo is a big thing...and with their weapons out wide

and in the backfield, coupled with the resurgence of their

defense (minus the 3rd Quarter of the NFC Championship game)

I think Senator McCain is about to be consoled with a Cards Super moment.

'I have a dream'...so said Kurt Warner when he was bagging groceries back in the 90s...he's lived it once before, why not one more time.

Take the Cards, and take the over...so let it be written, so let it be done.

ST LOUIS SPORTS MAGAZINE -Super Buzz: The Impact of Super Bowl Advertisements (Feb 2009, pp. 60-61)

A Tough Sports Industry in 2009